By Gaurav S. Iyer, IFC Published : October 25, 2017
Fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) are three poisons used to discourage interest in new technologies, but they almost never last. So try not to think too hard about yesterday’s 5.46% slump in the Litecoin to USD exchange rate.
It means next to nothing in the grand arc of LTC prices because FUD nearly always crumbles when faced with the overwhelming force of progress.
Besides, yesterday’s Litecoin news wasn’t even related to Litecoin. It was almost entirely to do with Bitcoin (BTC) and its hard fork.
For those who aren’t familiar with the hard fork, it happened yesterday. Here’s a rough overview of how (and why) it went down:
- Some Bitcoin developers wanted to upgrade Bitcoin in a certain way.
- But the majority of developers didn’t agree with them.
- So they issued a new protocol from their nodes, dividing Bitcoin into two camps.
- The new protocol became a new currency: Bitcoin Gold (BTG).
If this story sounds eerily familiar, it’s because a similar situation played out in July.
During that fiasco, a small band of rebellious developers created Bitcoin Cash (BCH) à la hard fork. Yesterday’s scenario was almost exactly the same thing, except BTG and BCH have very different visions for the future of Bitcoin.
You might think this high-stakes drama is fully played out. But, believe it or not, we’re actually going to see another fork before the year is out.
This fork—known as SegWit2x—is supposed to be the big one. The one that could potentially supplant the original Bitcoin.
Why? Because it has significant support among the core developer community.
But what does this have to do with Litecoin prices?
Well, consider that the Litecoin to USD rate dropped 5.46% in the last 24 hours.
Daily Litecoin Chart
It is currently sitting at around $55.43, and the only reason is a civil war in the Bitcoin community. This suggests that LTC prices are hugely exposed to moves in Bitcoin prices.
Since Bitcoin is having such a big impact on short-term LTC prices, we need to consider its impact on our Litecoin price forecast. Personally, we think that excessive volatility from the implementation of SegWit2x might drive LTC to $90.00 before the end of the year, but it’s important to note that an increase in volatility works in both directions. Litecoin’s downside risk is also extended as a result of the upcoming SegWit2x battle.