By Gaurav S. Iyer, IFC Published : October 10, 2017
It’s hard to accept when you’re looking at a trading screen that’s flashing red, but the current slump in Litecoin prices has nothing to do with Litecoin.
There wasn’t any disastrous Litecoin news (since China), nor any blow to the long-term Litecoin price forecast (once again, since China). In fact, Litecoin’s sweeping narrative is relatively upbeat…
…except, of course, for the drop in LTC prices.
But it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out what is happening here—investors are rotating their funds into Bitcoin. So what? Rotations such as this happen regularly, most often during times of crisis.
Right now, the rotation is happening because of an upcoming fork of Bitcoin’s blockchain. The market is voicing its support for Bitcoin Classic by pouring funds into the original cryptocurrency, but that is not a permanent state of affairs.
The last time Bitcoin prices traded this high, LTC was trading between $75.00 and $80.00.
At the moment, the Litecoin to USD exchange rate is down roughly 2.65% to $50.52. Meanwhile, the Litecoin to Bitcoin rate is down approximately 7.33% to 0.01044350 BTC.
In other words, LTC prices must increase 50% to 60% in order to regain balance with Bitcoin. Taking into account that Litecoin is considered the “silver to Bitcoin’s gold,” this rebalancing should happen relatively soon, especially since Litecoin’s liquidity is picking up.
In the aftermath of China’s ban on cryptocurrency trading, there was a steady drop-off in LTC trading volume.
By last week, only $50.0- to $60.0-million worth of Litecoin was changing hands each day. Now that number is up to $152.37-million, which increases the probability of Litecoin finding a strong bid.
We remain cautiously bullish on Litecoin, particularly in light of the rotation to Bitcoin. These rotations look scary as they happen, but the net result is a discounted price for cryptocurrencies whose underlying fundamentals are unchanged. In light of this, we maintain our $200.00 Litecoin price forecast for 2018.