By Gaurav S. Iyer, IFC Published : October 4, 2017
As ETH prices oscillated between $290.00 and $306.00 last week, investors seemed immune to some of the more subtle Ethereum news that emerged. If they had paid attention, it seems likely that ETH would have accelerated to our short-term Ethereum price forecast of $400.00.
For instance, a senior official from the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston said the Fed is working on an Ethereum proof-of-concept. No one batted an eye at this announcement, which seems peculiar, to say the least.
The official is Jim Cunha, Senior Vice-President of the Boston Fed. He was giving a speech at a fintech conference in Philadelphia on the subject of “Bitcoin, Blockchain and other Cryptocurrencies.” (Source: “Boston Fed VP: Blockchain Will Wake Up Swift and Other Middlemen,” CoinDesk, October 3, 2017.)
In the speech, Cunha revealed that the Fed was experimenting with Hyperledger, Fabric, and Ethereum. That information was previously unknown to the public. Although Cunha didn’t elaborate on the proof-of-concepts, merely mentioning them is a big deal.
After all, the Fed was completely ignoring blockchain last year, lumping it together with Bitcoin as if there were no distinction between the two terms. Their rapidly changing position is noteworthy and would have sent ETH prices soaring under normal circumstances.
However, investors reacted by dropping the Ethereum to USD exchange rate 0.84% to $294.00. Meanwhile, the Ethereum to Bitcoin rate dropped to 0.06961140 BTC.
Trading volumes have been decreasing for steadily for several weeks, which is slightly concerning but not yet alarming.
Roughly $321.7-million worth of ETH tokens changed hands on Tuesday. Contrast that with the middle of last month, when investors traded $1.94-billion worth of Ethereum.
The good news is that Ethereum has a wide base of support. Only one of its exchanges contributed more than 10% of overall trading activity, which puts ETH into the same class as Bitcoin. Other “altcoins” are usually concentrated around a geographic location.
For instance, Ripple draws a majority of its support from South Korea and Litecoin used to depend heavily on China. This construct can expose a currency to political risk, whereby adverse regulatory shifts in one country can upend the currency’s support.
While I understand that cryptocurrencies are lumped together—meaning that they rise together and fall together—I believe this dynamic will change in due time. Sooner or later, investors will come to distinguish between blockchains, lending their support to the ones most likely to succeed.
That is the biggest tailwind for our Ethereum price prediction; its decentralized application blockchain is one that central banks, government agencies, and private corporations can use without shooting themselves in the foot.
Also Read: Hold on to Ethereum for the Long Term